In sports betting, there is a misconception that one could be particularly successful with bets on favourites. But with tips on teams like FC Bayern Munich or FC Barcelona you can only lose in the long run. First of all, due to the low quotes, there are only small profits. Furthermore, one or two losses per season is enough to slide into a mathematical deficit, as long as you bet the same stakes on the top teams every week.
In addition, the meager profits from favorite bets have been reduced by most bookmakers for several years due to the betting tax. Every successful sports bettor largely ignores the big favorites. If you decide to use this sports betting strategy anyway, be sure to choose a provider without betting tax! The quotes offered bear no relation to the earnings opportunities.
At first glance, live betting looks exciting, appealing and gives that special kick. But you can’t make a lot of money here. The payout key for live bets rarely exceeds the 90 percent mark. Nevertheless, live bets are very popular with major betting providers such as bet365. In addition, you often have to make decisions within a few seconds, which leads to mistakes.
Every bookmaker uses odds to determine the probability of the outcome of a specific sporting event. The more unlikely the occurrence of the respective result is, the higher the corresponding quota. Despite thorough research work, a subjective component also remains with the bookmakers. If the bookmaker underestimates a probability, the odds offered are too high. For special sports events, the bettor then also gives a probability assessment based on well-created previews. If your own assessment of the probability is higher than that of the bookmaker, you have discovered a value bet for yourself.
A value bet is a bet in which the bookmaker underestimates the probability of a certain result (home win, draw, away win). The odds offered are therefore too high and higher than the probability of the game result. However, the amount of the quota is irrelevant.
Example of a value bet
A value bet can be calculated using the following formula: Value (=value) = (odds *probability in % / 100) > 1
The bettor assumes that Team A will win the game against Team B with a probability of 90%. The bookmaker’s odds (e.g. on Team A: 1.125) must be multiplied by the expected probability (90%) and then divided by 100. If the value is greater than 1, it is a value bet.
With value bets, however, it must be noted that these are personal and subjective estimates of the probability of the weather. The subjective component can be minimized through good analysis and a lot of work with statistics. To determine value bets, a comparison of the odds of the different bookmakers can be extremely helpful. If you find odds for a certain result that are significantly higher compared to other betting providers, there is much to suggest that it is a value bet. If you then only play value bets with small stakes for a long time, you have a good chance of constant profit development and a very solid sports betting strategy, which also requires work.
As the name suggests, surebets are safe bets. Here you take advantage of the different odds in the run-up to the events and also with live bets. The differences can arise, among other things, from news, rumors and facts that are related to the betting event and are evaluated differently by the bookmakers. The customer receives a surebet if he finds a lower odds with one provider and gets the same or better odds for the opposite side from another provider.
For surebets you have to be registered with several bookmakers. An example of a surebet bet would be to bet money on a home team win, an away team win and a draw in a football game. If you have three odds, these are always the divisor. 1 is the dividend. The sum of these three quotients should be less than 1 at the end. The further below, the better.
Example of a surebet
The odds for a home win for Team A are 5.80. The odds for a tie are 3.90. The odds for an away win for Team B are 1.90.
One calculates: (1 : 5.80 = 0.172) + (1 : 3.90 = 0.256) + (1 : 1.90 = 0.526) = 0.954
For every 0.954 euros wagered, you get one euro back. Or the other way around 1 : 0.954 = 1.048. This corresponds to an increase of 4.8 percent. For example, 0.954 can be represented as 95.40 euros. That makes 17.20 euros for a home win, 25.60 euros for a draw and 52.60 euros for an away win. No matter how the game ends, you always go home with a win. However, betting taxes are often not included in such examples.
Without an odds comparison service, finding instant surebets is extremely tedious and time consuming. Many sites also offer a surebet finder or a surebet calculator. But be careful: Surebets are often only available for a short time. Also, the stakes have to be relatively high to get any real benefit from surebets, which becomes difficult when bookmakers set stake limits per bet. Nevertheless, you should definitely include this sports betting strategy in your repertoire and use it at every good opportunity.
Arbitrage bets are bets that generate secure profits through natural price or odds fluctuations before and during the event. The term “arbitrage” originally comes from the world of finance. Like surebets, arbitrage bets are caused by fluctuations in odds based on news, rumours, opinions and facts related to the betting event. The betting markets and odds react to everything. The art lies in recognizing the development and trend of the market in advance.
The difference between arbitrage bets and surebets is that surebets become arbitrage bets when they actually come true. So if you bet with your bookmaker at the beginning of the bet on the victory of a player or a team and the odds then develop downwards, you can eventually get an attractive odds for the counter-bet and thus make a secure profit.